Prediction markets are eating macro data.
By Maxime Laurent · 2025-12-18 10:15
Prediction markets are eating macro data.
Live bets are starting to outpace official stats by pricing reality in real time, not weeks later.
Kalshi, Polymarket… I’ve been watching these platforms the same way I watch order books. Quietly, closely. They don’t wait for CPI prints or polished reports. They digest fear, confidence, insider intuition, and stupidity — instantly. That’s messy, but it’s honest.
When Polymarket hits 90–95% accuracy, that’s not magic. That’s skin in the game. People don’t lie when money is on the line. Surveys lie. Models lag. Markets react. Hedge funds understand this very well, which is why they’re already plugged in.
From my chair near the sea, this feels like the natural evolution of information. Macro used to be top-down. Now it’s crowdsourced, probabilistic, and brutally efficient. $BTC was the first signal of that shift. Prediction markets are just the next layer.
Not perfect, not clean — but closer to truth than bureaucracy. Et voilà 📊🌊
#CryptoFriture #PredictionMarkets #Macro #Polymarket #Kalshi
Live bets are starting to outpace official stats by pricing reality in real time, not weeks later.
Kalshi, Polymarket… I’ve been watching these platforms the same way I watch order books. Quietly, closely. They don’t wait for CPI prints or polished reports. They digest fear, confidence, insider intuition, and stupidity — instantly. That’s messy, but it’s honest.
When Polymarket hits 90–95% accuracy, that’s not magic. That’s skin in the game. People don’t lie when money is on the line. Surveys lie. Models lag. Markets react. Hedge funds understand this very well, which is why they’re already plugged in.
From my chair near the sea, this feels like the natural evolution of information. Macro used to be top-down. Now it’s crowdsourced, probabilistic, and brutally efficient. $BTC was the first signal of that shift. Prediction markets are just the next layer.
Not perfect, not clean — but closer to truth than bureaucracy. Et voilà 📊🌊
#CryptoFriture #PredictionMarkets #Macro #Polymarket #Kalshi
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.