Powell stays calm while the system creaks.
By Maxime Laurent · 2026-01-29 08:31
Powell stays calm while the system creaks.
FOMC tone: confidence on the surface, structural stress underneath — and no rush to act.
Listening to Jerome Powell this time felt like watching a tightrope walk. On one side, reassurance: policy is “adequate”, the economy is solid, consumers spend, businesses invest, no rate hikes coming. On the other? A $38.5T US debt he openly calls unsustainable. That word matters.
Powell insists inflation is still above target, largely driven by tariffs, but expects that pressure to peak this year. If — and it’s a big if — prices cool afterward, that’s when easing can begin. Until then, no commitments, no calendar, no promises. Classic Fed fog.
What struck me most wasn’t what he said about rates. It was what he didn’t dismiss. Debt is a problem. Gold’s rally? “Don’t overthink it.” The dollar? No comment, as tradition dictates. Yet everything between the lines screams late-cycle tension.
He even called the Lisa Cook Supreme Court case potentially the most important legal battle in Fed history. That’s not casual language. Independence clearly sits heavy on his mind.
From my chair by the sea, this feels like stability by discipline, not by comfort. The system holds, but it’s stiff. And when systems get stiff, they don’t snap immediately — they grind.
Markets heard “no hikes” and relaxed. I heard “we’re managing decline carefully”. Pas de panique… but eyes open.
#macro #FOMC #FederalReserve #rates #inflation #gold #crypto #CryptoFriture
FOMC tone: confidence on the surface, structural stress underneath — and no rush to act.
Listening to Jerome Powell this time felt like watching a tightrope walk. On one side, reassurance: policy is “adequate”, the economy is solid, consumers spend, businesses invest, no rate hikes coming. On the other? A $38.5T US debt he openly calls unsustainable. That word matters.
Powell insists inflation is still above target, largely driven by tariffs, but expects that pressure to peak this year. If — and it’s a big if — prices cool afterward, that’s when easing can begin. Until then, no commitments, no calendar, no promises. Classic Fed fog.
What struck me most wasn’t what he said about rates. It was what he didn’t dismiss. Debt is a problem. Gold’s rally? “Don’t overthink it.” The dollar? No comment, as tradition dictates. Yet everything between the lines screams late-cycle tension.
He even called the Lisa Cook Supreme Court case potentially the most important legal battle in Fed history. That’s not casual language. Independence clearly sits heavy on his mind.
From my chair by the sea, this feels like stability by discipline, not by comfort. The system holds, but it’s stiff. And when systems get stiff, they don’t snap immediately — they grind.
Markets heard “no hikes” and relaxed. I heard “we’re managing decline carefully”. Pas de panique… but eyes open.
#macro #FOMC #FederalReserve #rates #inflation #gold #crypto #CryptoFriture
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.