Bitcoin $100k dreams meet cold probabilities.
By Maxime Laurent · 2025-12-15 08:54
Bitcoin $100k dreams meet cold probabilities.
Prediction markets now price a sub-50% chance for $BTC to hit $100,000 by year’s end.
On Kalshi it’s 42%, on Polymarket 39%. Not exactly confidence. The reasons are familiar: macro uncertainty still hanging in the air, and corporate treasuries slowing down their buying spree. Less big money urgency, more waiting around.
Technically, things are… tense. Analysts talk about a triangle pattern playing out. A clean break above $94,000 could open the road toward $108,000, but before that, the market may need to revisit the old support zone around $98,000. In other words: no shortcut, no easy moon.
From where I sit, phone glowing in the late Mediterranean light, this feels like a reality check. The $100k narrative is powerful, but markets don’t care about slogans. They care about liquidity, patience, and timing. And right now, timing is hesitating.
Honestly, I don’t see fear — I see doubt. And doubt is quieter than panic. Traders are less euphoric, less emotional, more selective. Pas de panique. Just a market asking: “are you sure?”
Whether $BTC hits six figures this year or not, this phase feels healthy. Fewer certainties, more thinking. And in crypto, that’s often when the real moves are being prepared.
#Bitcoin #BTC #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #CryptoAnalysis #MarketMood
Prediction markets now price a sub-50% chance for $BTC to hit $100,000 by year’s end.
On Kalshi it’s 42%, on Polymarket 39%. Not exactly confidence. The reasons are familiar: macro uncertainty still hanging in the air, and corporate treasuries slowing down their buying spree. Less big money urgency, more waiting around.
Technically, things are… tense. Analysts talk about a triangle pattern playing out. A clean break above $94,000 could open the road toward $108,000, but before that, the market may need to revisit the old support zone around $98,000. In other words: no shortcut, no easy moon.
From where I sit, phone glowing in the late Mediterranean light, this feels like a reality check. The $100k narrative is powerful, but markets don’t care about slogans. They care about liquidity, patience, and timing. And right now, timing is hesitating.
Honestly, I don’t see fear — I see doubt. And doubt is quieter than panic. Traders are less euphoric, less emotional, more selective. Pas de panique. Just a market asking: “are you sure?”
Whether $BTC hits six figures this year or not, this phase feels healthy. Fewer certainties, more thinking. And in crypto, that’s often when the real moves are being prepared.
#Bitcoin #BTC #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #CryptoAnalysis #MarketMood
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.